![]() ![]() Sharing a similar view, Alan McIntosh, chief investment strategist at investment management firm Quilter Cheviot said, “There is much speculation about whether recession is inevitable as a result of interest rates going up." In a note to clients on 11 April, he added that there is a growing determination among global central banks to stop inflation becoming embedded in the system.Īt its latest meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept interest rates unchanged, but revised its inflation forecast for FY23 higher to 5.7%.Īfter the latest CPI data, the clamour for an interest rate hike in June is getting louder. This has set in motion a wage-price spiral that will be very difficult to reverse without hiking the economy into recession," said the Rabo Bank report on 11 April. ![]() “The Fed’s main policy error was to ignore the rise in inflation last year and getting blindsided. The series of negative supply shocks may not pull the US economy into recession, but the Fed’s late attempt to get inflation under control is likely to push the economy over the edge, pointed out analysts at Rabo Bank. This is followed by hawkish central bank act-ions on interest rates, inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Little wonder then that global recession remains the top tail risk to the portfolios of global fund managers. Both were affected by elevated food inflation and higher energy prices against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In India, inflation measured via the consumer price index (CPI) rose to a 17-month high of 6.95% in March. Retail inflation in the US has jumped to a four-decade high of 8.5% in March. ![]()
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